CITIC Securities (600030): Investment Bank + Investment-Driven Performance Upstream Carrier Grade Head Broker

CITIC Securities (600030): Investment Bank + Investment-Driven Performance Upstream Carrier Grade Head Broker

Event: On the evening of January 13, CITIC Securities disclosed the 2019 performance report.

  The performance of the short review was slightly lower than expected, and some net assets grew steadily.

In 2019, the company achieved operating income of 431.

77 trillion, ten years +16.

00%; net profit attributable to mother is 122.

880,000 yuan, +30 for ten years.

86%; estimated average ROE 7.

80%, ten years +1.

60 units.

  As of the end of 2019, the company’s total assets were 7,918.

04 trillion, +21 from the end of the previous year.

13%; 1616 attributable to parent shareholders.

8.5 billion, +5 from the end of the previous year.

58%; BVPS 13.

34 yuan / share, +5 over the end of last year.

54%.

  Investment banking business + investment business continued to drive upward performance.

(1) Investment Banking Business: The primary market of the science and technology innovation board will continue to release its potential. According to Wind Statistics (listing date caliber), the company’s IPO / refinancing / debt underwriting amounts will be 453 in 2019.

08/2393.

56/9001.

49 trillion per year, respectively + 3555% / 29% / 17%.

(2) Investment business: The Shanghai Composite Index will gradually increase in 201922.

30%, the CSI All-Bond Index gradually increased4.

96%, stocks and bonds rose in size. The self-operated investment income was upward-keyed, and the science and technology board followed the investment to increase incremental earnings.

  (3) Public offering management business: In 2019, the subsidiary Huaxia Fund realized operating income39.

7.7 billion, +6 in ten years.

53%, achieving a net profit of 12.

01 ten percent.

35%; As of the end of 2019, the size of the assets under management of the Huaxia Fund Headquarters was 10,321 trillion.

  The performance of other subsidiaries was slightly lower than 四川耍耍网 expected.

Excluding the impact of the 2.5 billion subsidiaries’ dividends in the October monthly report, the company’s 2019 annual report’s net profit attributable to the parent is only 27 higher than the monthly net profit.

12 trillion, of which the fourth quarter performance report attributed to the mother’s net profit is lower than the monthly reported net profit3.

8.4 billion.

This means that the overall net profit performance of non-securities subsidiaries such as CITIC Securities International, Kingstone Investment, and CITIC Industrial Investment in the 2019 quarter was poor, resulting in the company’s performance slightly exceeding expectations.

  ”Clearance and reduction” CITIC Construction Investment has repeatedly appeared.

As of January 10, 2020, the time limit for the reduction of the centralized bidding 上海夜网论坛 transactions of this reduction plan expired, and the company gradually reduced its holding of CITIC Construction Investment to zero.

58% of shares, reducing the total amount of 8.

09 million yuan, the remaining holders of CITIC Construction Investment 5.01% stake.

  The acquisition of Guangzhou Securities progressed smoothly.

The company issued shares to Yuexiu Financial Holdings to purchase decentralized Guangzhou futures, and the 100% equity of Guangzhou Securities after the equity of the Golden Eagle Fund has been reviewed and approved by the Securities and Futures Commission; Guangzhou Securities was approved to be renamed “CITIC Securities South China Co., Ltd.” and completed its holdings.Replacement of Guangzhou Futures and Golden Eagle Fund equity.

After the completion of the transaction, the number of CITIC Securities’ business outlets in the five provinces and regions of Guangdong, Guiqiong, Yunnan and Guizhou will increase from 21 to 59, which will help increase market share in South China; South China will serve as a regional landing platform for wealth management business, To strengthen the company’s high-net-worth customers in southern China to acquire customers.

  Investment suggestion: Give “overweight” rating.

In 2020, the brokerage sector will continue to benefit from the catalysis of “loose liquidity” and “capital market reform”, with a high probability of rising performance and ROE.

Supervisors support the creation of aircraft carrier-grade securities brokers, promote the supply-side reform of the securities industry, increase capital strength (ranked No. 1 on the list of listed securities firms in 2019Q3 net assets), improve wind control (awarded AA rating from the CSRC for 3 consecutive years), and innovative capabilitiesOutstanding (underwriting of science and technology board + follow-up investment, derivative market making, wealth management expansion leading layout) CITIC Securities will be one of the first beneficiaries.

We expect CITIC Securities to have a BVPS of 14 in 2020-2021.

13 yuan and 15.

00 yuan, corresponding to the current expectations of 1.

84X PB and 1.

73X PB.

In view of the cracks in the company’s previous growth and the growth rate of the city’s net worth is close to the high point of the past three years, we lowered CITIC Securities (600030.

SH) to the “overweight” level.

  Risk warning: Monetary policy shifts to tighten; capital market reforms stagnate.

Pinggao Electric (600312) Annual Report Comments: 2018 Performance Detects UHV Restart to Contribute New Momentum

Pinggao Electric (600312) Annual Report Comments: 2018 Performance Detects UHV Restart to Contribute New Momentum

The bottom of the company’s performance in 2018 reached net profit attributable to mothers2.

8.6 billion (上海夜网论坛YOY-54.

59%) The company published its 2018 annual report: 108 operating income in 2018.

160,000 yuan (+20 compared to the same period last year).

74%), net profit attributable to mother 2.

8.6 billion (YOY-54.

59%), net profit after deduction to mother 2.

7.3 billion (YOY-55.

89%), gross margin of 14.

15%, more than six years.

46 points.

Among them, the fourth quarter achieved revenue of 58.

1.7 billion (+ 94% YoY).

12%), net profit attributable to mother 2.
.

8.4 billion (+69 y / y).

17%).

The company consolidates the leading advantages of the high-voltage sector, strengthens the exchange network, overseas engineering general contracting, and operation and maintenance of the four major sectors for efficient and cooperative development.

Due to the structural changes in product revenue in the high-voltage sector, UHV GIS has significantly decreased, and revenue and gross profit margin have declined compared with the same period in 2017.

According to the company’s announcement of the distribution network order in hand and the progress of UHV, 2018 is the bottom of the company’s performance. It will usher in a recovery from 2019 to 2020, and the company is expected to achieve operating revenue of about 11.5 billion in 2019.

We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent for 2019-2021 will be 4 respectively.

97/7.

0杭州夜生活网7/7.

68 ppm, corresponding EPS is 0.

37/0.

52/0.

57 yuan, maintain the “recommended” level.

Development and Reform Commission promotes incremental exchange business, and in order to guarantee the growth of distribution network business since 2019, the Development and Reform Commission has successively issued the “Notice on Progressive Promotion of Incremental Exchange Business Reform” and “Notice on Progress of Incremental Exchange Business Reform Pilot Projects”(Phase 2) “to further clarify relevant policies and urge local governments to step up their efforts.

According to the goal of the State Grid, in 2018, the distribution network automation coverage rate will reach 60%, compared with the 90% target, there is still a gap of 30%, and the space for distribution network renovation is still huge.

According to the company’s announcement, since 2018, the company has successively won bids for medium and low voltage power distribution equipment for the State Grid, and the order amount has gradually reached 84.

2.7 billion, most concentrated in the second half of 2018, starting a decade.

The market share of combined appliances ranked first, the new UHV cycle increased the gross profit margin of the high-voltage business In September 2018, a new round of UHV construction cycle for the seven-pass five-direct service began.

As of now, the first bidding for equipment has been conducted for Qinghai-Henan, northern Shaanxi-Hubei UHV lines, and the Zhangbei-Xiongan and Zhumadian-Nanyang UHV lines have conducted second bids for equipment.

According to the characteristics of previous cycles of UHV projects, this UHV cycle will focus on completing project bidding in 2019-2020.

The company’s leading position in the GIS field is stable and solid, with a market share of over 40%, which directly benefits from this round of UHV construction.

In addition, the company has core technology in the field of SF6 circuit breakers and insulating wall bushings, and related equipment revenue will also contribute performance.

Risk reminder: UHV and distribution network transformation is less than expected; risks of raw material price fluctuations.

Dongfang Shenghong (000301): Performance meets expectations Expected to be injected into the Group’s PTA assets to enhance competitiveness

Dongfang Shenghong (000301): Performance meets expectations Expected to be injected into the Group’s PTA assets to enhance competitiveness

Investment points: Affected by changes in the business climate, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 19Q1 fluctuated slightly for many years.

04%.

The company achieved operating income of 43 in 2019Q1.

4.9 billion, an increase of 20 in ten years.

97% (adjusted), net profit attributable to mother 3.

16 billion, the previous decade1.

04% (after adjustment), deducting non-attributed net profit 2.

42 billion, 27 from the previous decade.

3% (adjusted), in line with our expectations.

The company’s performance was mainly due to the drop in oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2018, and changes in interest rates of raw materials affected the operation of 19Q1. In the first quarter of 2019, the average profit generated by the POY in the polyester filament industry was 150 yuan / ton, a cumulative decrease of 34 yuan / ton.The average income of DTY-POY was 473 yuan / ton, which increased by 261 yuan / ton a year, but at the same time production and sales were also affected by the Spring Festival.

The company’s cash acquisition of the group’s PTA asset plan was approved by the shareholders’ meeting, which has benefited the industry.

Jiangsu Shenghong Petrochemical Industry Development Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to purchase 100% of Honggang Petrochemical, a subsidiary of the group, in cash, with a transaction price of 19.

92 ppm, according to the company ‘s April 30 announcement of the shareholders ‘meeting has approved the plan.

Prior to Honggang Petrochemical, the current PTA production capacity was 150 mg / year. The acquisition of Honggang Petrochemical will solve the related-party transaction issue of listed companies’ PTA purchases, and will help accelerate the company’s promotion of “crude oil refining-PX / glycol-PTA-“Polyester-chemical fiber” strategic layout of the new high-end textile industry chain.

2019Q2 With the decline in prices of new production capacity expected by PX, the processing profit of the polyester industry chain has shifted from PX to PTA, and the average spread of PTA-PX has continued to expand. The average profit of the PTA processing segment has increased to 650 yuan in 4 months.Around a ton, the industry’s tight balance is expected to support gradual profitability.

At the same time, the polyester filament price difference has also begun to recover from March 2019, and the average net profit of POY has gradually increased to 600 yuan / ton since April.

PTA production capacity upgrade and expansion and the construction of refining and chemical integration projects have opened up the upstream of the industrial 西安耍耍网 chain to enhance competitiveness.

Honggang Petrochemical is also building a 240-ton / year PTA production unit project, which is expected to be commissioned in the fourth quarter of 2020. At that time, the company’s PTA production capacity will reach 360 tons, and the unit uses INVISTA’s industry-leading P8 technology construction.After the completion of the expansion, the expected environmental protection, product quality and working hours are expected to improve, and it is expected to significantly reduce the overall cost.

The company also has a “Shenghong 1600-ton / year integrated refining and chemical integration project” under construction. It is expected to be completed and put into operation by 2021, and then it will realize the upstream PX of the polyester industry chain, which will help the company compete in the polyester industry chainMedium force.
Investment suggestion: Regarding the integration of the PTA business into the company’s profit and the performance of the refining and chemical project for the time being, adjust the company’s current business in 2019?
EPS forecasts for 2021 are zero.

39 yuan, 0.

46 yuan and 0.

53 yuan, (0 before adjustment.

39 yuan, 0.

54 yuan and 0.

56 yuan), corresponding PE is 15X / 13X / and 11X respectively, converted to PTA, the rebound of polyester boom, the company’s second-quarter profit improvement has improved, taking into account the contribution of subsequent PTA business injection and the introduction of complementary projects, the company competeWill improve, have growth, and maintain the “overweight” level.

The main risks are: the sharp drop in oil prices; the deterioration of the supply-demand relationship in the polyester industry; the company’s refining and chemical project construction and production progress is less than expected.

HKUST Xunfei (002230) In-depth Study: Embrace AI Dividends After Management Optimization

HKUST Xunfei (002230) In-depth Study: Embrace AI Dividends After Management 重庆耍耍网 Optimization
Investment points: AI enters the dividend redemption period, and Xunfei becomes the biggest beneficiary.Companies in AI Strategy 2.Driven by 0, it is expected to gradually realize the cash dividends in core tracks such as education, politics, law, consumers, and medical care; meanwhile, the productization rate will increase, the track control panel, and deep integration of AI technology will promote the increase of gross profit margin; internal management optimizationAfter that, the personnel growth rate has significantly landed, the per capita performance has increased, the expense ratio has fallen during the period, and profits will enter a high growth channel.The above changes are already obvious in 2019, and it is expected to be more optimistic in 2020! Behind the improvement of profitability are many strategic transformations in management.The company launched “track control panel, scale application, and improved take-off” in early 2019. The internal management transformation ensures the sustainability of growth: 1) In line with the development stage of the AI industry, from the pursuit of technology to good products and management, in order to enter the alternativeGao Feng is ready; 2) Through the reform of the business unit system and incremental performance management, to improve the efficiency of the business sector; 3) Promote the EMT system and “Spring Xiao Action 2”.0 “, bringing together polyoxymethylene talents; 4) Promoting internal resources to ensure the efficiency of the company system in terms of system design. Three dimensions of financial indicators, proof of “AI Strategy 2.“0” is valid: 1) In the first three quarters of 2019, per capita gross profit will increase by 30% per year, and the net interest rate will reach 7.26%, a significant increase over the same period last year2.69pct; 2) The rate of expense growth has entered the downward channel, and the expense ratio decreased by 1 during the first three quarters of 19 years.96pct, of which sales / administration costs only increase by 10 per year.9% / 17.6% (in the same period in 2018, the growth rate reached 68.8% / 55.1%); 3) The budget cost growth rate has landed significantly, and with the end of the personnel expansion cycle, the quarterly budget growth center has dropped from about 70% in 2017-2018 to less than 20% in 2019.It is expected that the depth of management optimization will continue the above-mentioned trend of operational improvement. Realize the core track control panel, and the successful bidding of large projects proves that large-scale applications have reached a higher level.1) In the field of education, from the B-side to the C-side, the large-scale application of personalized learning in the country has been achieved, and the bid has recently won 8.The USD 5.9 billion Qingdao Teaching and Learning Demonstration Zone project is of great significance; the reform of personalized learning manuals and Xunfei learning machines has increased the productization rate, and the gross profit margin has continued to rise; 2) in the field of politics and law, accumulated a wealth of application cases and industry knowledgeImproving the ability of rapid replication and promotion after the control of the market, and promoting revenue growth; 3) In the medical field, facing the billion-dollar AI-assisted diagnosis and treatment market, the company has accumulated massive data in Anhui Province on a trial basis and established strong barriers; 4) the consumer field, surroundingA full-stack product system for office scenarios has been formed, and core technology advantages have brought high premium rates. “618” and “Double Eleven” results prove that the company 杭州夜生活网 has the ability to cultivate C-end explosive products. Covered for the first time, giving “overweight” rating.It is expected that the company’s revenue in 2019-2021 will be 103.7/141.7/187.100 million yuan, an annual growth rate of 31.0% / 36.7% / 32.0%; Expected net profit attributable to mothers is 8, respectively.30/13.01/19.3 billion, an annual growth rate of 53.0% / 56.8% / 48.4%.According to the two overall / segment estimation methods, the target market value is 90 billion yuan. Risk reminders: The investment in education informatization construction does not meet expectations; there is uncertainty in the competitive environment; the sustainability of per capita performance improvement; and the risk of account receivables recovery.

Sangang Minguang (002110) Annual Report Commentary Report: The main business scale is expected to continue to expand, high dividends and continuous returns to investors

Sangang Minguang (002110) Annual Report Commentary Report: The main business scale is expected to continue to expand, high dividends and continuous returns to investors

Event On the evening of March 29, 2019, the company announced its 2018 annual 四川耍耍网 report.

Reported that the top companies achieved operating income of 362.

48 yuan, an annual increase of 14.

40%; net profit attributable to mother is 65.

07 million yuan, an increase of 20 in ten years.

04%; achieve basic net income 3.

98 yuan / share, an increase of 19 in ten years.

88%.

Report information, the company produces steel 965.

51 nominal, pig iron 827.

62 cobalt, steel 959.

29 cobalt, coke 86.

4 cobalt, sintered into the furnace 1,040.

63 for the first time.

Based on 1,634,384,159, the company distributed a cash dividend of 20 to all shareholders for every 10 shares.

00 yuan (including tax), the capital reserve will be transferred to all shareholders for every 10 shares of 5 shares.

Increased cash dividends and positive returns to shareholders’ cash dividends from 2016 to 20182.

7.5 billion, 20.

6 billion, 32.

69 ppm with a dividend payout ratio of 25.

06%, 38.

01%, 50.

twenty four%.

The company’s performance in 2018 reached a new high. At the same time, the company increased its cash ratio dividends to return to investors, demonstrating confidence in later earnings.

Actively purchase production capacity to increase the performance of the main business company and set a new record scale. The company completed the acquisition of Sanan Iron and Steel and the production scale continued to expand.

After readjustment, the company realized an increase in net profit attributable to mothers20.

04%.

Earlier the proportion of the headquarters, Sanan Iron and Steel reduced the cost advantage, after a certain scale after the injection to solve the problem of competition among shareholders, and the injection of high-quality assets has further enhanced the company’s profitability.

According to the company’s announcement, the company may acquire 100% equity of Luoyuan Minguang Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. in the later period. By then, the steel industry of the Three Steel Group will be injected into the listed company.The iron and steel production capacity index (iron 122 additive, steel 135 end point), the total steel production capacity may reach 1,300 tons.

In 2018, the company’s building materials and Puban’s market share were about 70% and 75% respectively. In the later period, the company’s market share and regional influence will be further strengthened, and profitability may be further improved.

Relying on the advantages of regional status and variety, the main products of the company that are gradually promoting high profitability are rebar and sheet, of which the revenue share in 2018 was 49.

77%, 15.

58%.

Benefiting from the national “six stability” indicators, infrastructure supplementary shortcomings, and joint construction of the “Belt and Road” policy guidance, the company’s subsequent demand trends continue; and, the company is not in the heating season limited production area, the company headquarters + Quanzhou Minguang 2019The planned production of 1001 steel index will increase output, and the company is expected to continue to make high profits based on its location advantage and variety structure advantage.

The operation continued 都市夜网 to maintain the “Buy” rating. The company’s main sales region, Fujian Province, was less affected by the season, which helped the company maintain product price stability.

Affected by the company’s increase in share dilution, we will change the company’s EPS from 2019 to 2020 from 4.

93 yuan, 5.

37 yuan adjusted to 3.28 yuan, 3.

58 yuan, EPS is expected to be 3 in 2021.

68 yuan, adjusted the target price from 27 yuan to 18 yuan.

Risk warning: uncertainty of downstream demand, uncertainty of the company’s later share acquisition, and changes in its own operations.

First Capital (600008) Company Dynamic Comment: Volume and Price of Water Affairs Sector Goes Up and Performance Maintains Rapid Growth

First Capital (北京夜网600008) Company Dynamic Comment: Volume and Price of Water Affairs Sector Goes Up and Performance Maintains Rapid Growth
Event: The company disclosed three quarterly reports. The company’s revenue for the first three quarters was 91.54 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.25%; net profit attributable to mother 5.660,000 yuan, an increase of 31 in ten years.81%.The main comments are as follows: Water and environmental protection businesses have grown simultaneously, and the company’s net profit attributable to mothers has gradually increased in the first three quarters.81% to 5.6.6 billion.The company’s revenue in the first three quarters increased by 20 in ten years.25% to 91.54 ppm; net income attributable to mothers increases by 31 each year.81% to 5.6.6 billion.In the third quarter, it achieved revenue of 34 in a single quarter.50,000 yuan, an increase of 12 in ten years.30%; achieve net profit attributable to mother 2.45 ppm, an increase of 11 years.51%.The rapid growth of the company’s performance was mainly due to the simultaneous improvement of the company’s two main business lines.  The company’s multiple water projects were put into operation, and the volume and price rose in the third quarter. In the third quarter, the total revenue of water supply + sewage in a single quarter was 13.40 ppm, an increase of 22 per year.15%.In the first three quarters, the company’s water projects such as the Tianjin Ninghe Water Supply Project and Hefei Shilili River Sewage Treatment Project were completed and accepted and delivered for operation. The company’s capacity expanded, and some water projects were adjusted upwards.Rise.1) In terms of tap water supply, the company’s tap water supply in the third quarter reached 31,319 inches, a gradual increase6.16%, average water price 2.23 yuan / ton, up 16 before.57%.Cumulative water supply in the first three quarters reached 81,178 tons, an increase of 17.twenty three%.2) In terms of sewage treatment, the company’s sewage treatment capacity in the third quarter reached a maximum of 52,134, exceeding the maximum of 16.57%, with an average water price of 1.23 yuan / ton, up 9 before.10%.In the first three quarters, the cumulative sewage treatment volume reached 145,686 tons, an increase of 12 per year.59%.  The company’s environmental protection field mainly involves solid oxide processing and other related businesses. The total number of new domestic orders in the third quarter was 47,838.840,000 yuan.At the same time benefiting from the waste classification policy, the company’s restaurant and kitchen waste treatment projects in Hangzhou and Yangzhou have basically reached full capacity.The company achieved a total of 84.78 million kilowatt-hours of grid-connected electricity in the third quarter, which later increased by 23.33%, of which Guizhou Province ‘s Internet access has increased significantly by 269.33% to 20.4 million kWh.In the first three quarters, the company gradually completed the online power consumption of 279.97 million kWh, which was extended by 33 for one year.89%.At the same time, it is beneficial to reduce taxes and cut taxes.14%.In the third quarter, the company’s waste power generation business had a total revenue of 47.24 million yuan, which will increase by 18.63%.  The reserve of projects in hand is sufficient, and the subsequent performance growth can be expected.As of the end of 2018, the company’s tap water supply and wastewater treatment capacity reached 1,402 respectively.92, 1,226.00 a day / day; capacity under construction 413.65 day / day, expected in 2019?Production will start in 2021.As of the end of the third quarter of 2019, the company’s balance sheet had a construction surplus of 182.USD 600 million, which is 59% of the balance of fixed assets + intangible assets, and the reserve of projects under construction is redundant.  Investment suggestion: For high-quality water and environmental protection targets, give the rating of overweight for the first time.Expected company 2019?EPS will reach 0 in 2021.16 yuan, 0.20 yuan, 0.23 yuan, corresponding to 21 times, 17 times, 15 times the price-earnings ratio.The company’s current market net interest rate is 1.78 times.As the environmental protection projects invested in earlier stages have been put into production, the company’s performance growth has maintained rapid growth.  Risk warning: the project operation progress may be less than expected; the profitability of new projects may be lower than expected.

Sany Heavy Industry (600031) 2019 Semi-annual Report Performance Preview Comment: Continued High Growth

Sany Heavy Industry (600031) 2019 Semi-annual Report Performance Preview Comment: Continued High Growth

The company with sustained and high performance released the 2019 semi-annual report performance forecast, which is expected to realize net profit attributable to mothers of RMB 6-7 billion, an increase of 91.

82% -106.

58%.

In a single quarter, the second quarter of 2019 is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers.

79-37.

79 trillion, an increase of 73 in ten years.

68% -100.

16%, the main categories of the company ‘s continued high growth performance: driven by factors such as downstream infrastructure demand, enhanced environmental protection, increased equipment renewal requirements, and artificial replacement effects, the construction machinery industry has grown rapidly; as a leading construction machinery company, the company ‘s product competitionWith the steady improvement of quality and commitment to products that have improved global competitiveness, excavation machinery, concrete machinery, lifting machinery, pile machinery and other products continue to grow strongly across the board; effective control of costs and expenses, and a significant increase in profitability.

  Renewal demand drives the industry’s prosperity, and the company’s combined products grow strongly. We believe that this is the main logic of the recovery of the construction machinery industry. The conversion of the demand for existing equipment and equipment has increased, followed by increased demand. The industry competition pattern is more reasonable than the previous cycle, and demand continues.Sex is good.

Sales of excavators from January to June 201913.

720,000 units, an increase of 14 in ten years.

2%, truck cranes from January to April.

760,000 units, an increase of 68 in ten years.

92%, concrete machinery also maintained rapid growth, and the industry boom continued.

From January to May, sales of excavators increased by 34.

08%, the highest growth rate of truck cranes is over 100%, concrete machinery keeps leading divisions, and the overall market share has steadily increased.

We expect that the annual renewal demand for excavators will remain 130,000-150,000 units per year in the next few 杭州桑拿网 years, providing a strong guarantee for the demand for excavators. The renewal demand for concrete machinery will be gradually released in 2018-2021, replacing the increase in infrastructure and real estate investmentNew demand will maintain steady growth in the next three years.

  Leverage the Belt and Road Initiative to build a leading international engineering machinery company. Since 2009, it has actively deployed overseas operations. The business covers 150 countries and regions. The industrial layout distribution and the “Belt and Road” region overlap have reached more than 70%. 2011-18The company’s overseas revenue scale from 34.

2.5 billion to 136.

300 million, CAGR reached 21.

8%.

The company has established overseas industrial parks by serving domestic companies’ overseas projects, actively deploying the Belt and Road regional market, and is committed to benchmarking Caterpillar and Komatsu Machinery in the future and growing into a global construction machinery giant.

  Profit forecast and investment recommendations The company’s net profit for 2019-2021 is expected to be 103.

6/117.

3/129.

50,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 1.

24/1.

40/1.

55 yuan, corresponding PE is 11/10/9 times, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: Macroeconomic downturn; low expectations for overseas business development; intensified market competition.

Evergreen Group (002616) Company Research: Performance Meets Expected Growth Expected

Evergreen Group (002616) Company Research: Performance Meets Expected Growth Expected
Event: The company’s 2019 revenue is 25.0 million yuan, an increase of 24.5%, net profit attributable to mother 3.0 million yuan, an increase of 77.2%.  Mancheng and Yuncheng projects drive high growth.The company’s revenue in 2019 is 25.0 million yuan, an increase of 24.5%, net profit attributable to mother 3.0 million yuan, an increase of 77.2%; expected revenue in the fourth quarter of 7.1 trillion, with an increase of 34.0%, net profit attributable to mother 1.0 million yuan, an increase of 46.7%, mainly due to the increase in the Mancheng project (the revenue of the Mancheng project in the first half of 20192.300 million, net profit of 5,305 million), and the Tancheng cogeneration project put into operation (formally 深圳桑拿网 transferred to commercial operations in September).  The return on net assets increased significantly, and the profitability of centralized heating was strong.The company’s ROE for 2019 is 13.1%, an increase of about 5 in 2018.In total, the main improvement of ROE is mainly due to the strong profitability of Mancheng’s centralized heating (2019H Mancheng net profit of 53.05 million yuan and total assets of 9.8 ppm, net margin 22.6%), through the continuous operation of central heating projects such as Mancheng, the company’s ROE is trying to improve.  The projects in hand are abundant, and future growth is expected.In terms of coal-fired centralized heating, the company’s Maoming (240t / h), Shaoguan (60t / h), Yixian (220t / h) and other projects will be gradually put into operation in the next two years.In terms of biomass 无锡夜网 cogeneration, the company is currently constructing a number of projects, and it is expected that they will be put into production in the next few years, with growth expected.  Investment suggestion: As a leading supplier of centralized heating, the company has been in the industry for many years. It has rich experience in selecting industrial heating projects and has excellent management of biomass cogeneration projects. It is expected to return to its net profit in 2019-2021.0/5.2/7.60,000 yuan, EPS is 0.40/0.70/1.02 yuan / share, corresponding to PE of 20.7X / 11.9X / 8.1X.The company has a wealth of projects in hand, and it is expected to be put into production in the next two years. It has great flexibility in performance and maintains a “buy” rating.  Risk reminder: The risk of arrears in supplementary electricity bills for biomass plants, the project progress is not up to expectations.

Suddenly-increased solid income + is more suitable for customers with low and medium risk appetite

Suddenly-increased “solid income +” is more suitable for customers with low and medium risk appetite
Source: Jiahe Fund Original title: Suddenly popular “solid income +”, what’s so attractive?  In the past two years, a large number of small partners have gradually discovered that in the past, “simple and rude but effective” bank financial management methods have started to fail. At the same time, bank financial management has turned to net worth products, and traditional low-risk financial product yields have fallen, and the equity market has experienced earlier fluctuationBig, tight real estate budget.”Laying and earning” has become more and more infeasible. Against this background, the value of the allocation of sound investment products represented by the “solid income +” strategy has gradually become apparent.So what is “fixed income +”?What charm does it have?  First, what is the strategy of “fixed income +”?  As early as 2016, the concept of “fixed income +” has appeared, but through the development of the securities market, the connotation of “fixed income +” has also been continuously enriched.  The past wealth management products of banks have the characteristics of “just cashed out”, and generally provide an expected rate of return, and investors do not have to worry about the risks most likely.With the introduction of new rules for asset management, requiring wealth management products to shift to net worth products, the exchange has just been broken, but where does the demand for low- and medium-risk investments go?The answer is “fixed income +”.  The so-called “fixed income +” strategy is to invest in fixed income, supplemented by risky assets to enhance portfolio returns.  ”Fixed income” is mainly based on the investment of bond assets, and the relatively stable income of the fixed income market is regarded as a safety 杭州桑拿 mat in the portfolio, which determines the height of the performance flexibility.  ”+” Is the thickening income of risk assets. Certain stocks, derivatives, and new stocks are the main sources of enhanced income.The purpose of adding such assets to the product is to increase the potential profitability of the product to a certain extent under the gradual control of the product’s volatility level.  Second, what are the characteristics of “fixed income +”?  From the point of view of the product itself: 1. The “fixed income +” strategy is not a simple fixed ratio of shares and bonds, but a continuous dynamic rebalancing.For example, in the rising market of the stock, the contribution of the equity part of the strategy is too high, causing the proportion of the stock to exceed the original proportion, and then it will be readjusted 四川耍耍网 to the original proportion, which is equivalent to a “stop-profit mechanism”.  2. When assets with low correlation are added to the portfolio, it can better provide absolute returns.  As the Merrill Lynch clock shows, the performance of different assets in different economic cycles is different. There may be some overlap in the performance cycles of some assets, but more of them will show your characteristics, Therefore, it is possible to achieve better performance than a single asset through effective rotation configuration.  From the investment experience point of view: “Fixed income +” products have essentially fixed income products as the majority of the configuration, the original intention is to target low-risk return customers with long-term financial needs, this part of the population risk tolerance is relatively absolute, And represents “absolute revenue”, and hopes that the product performance is stable.  Let ‘s take the secondary debt base supplemented by the “solid income +” strategy as an example. The chart below shows the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index, China Securities Total Bond and the secondary debt base index from 2010 to 2019: (data source): Wind, Jiahe Fund; deadline: 2020.01.13) From the figure above, we can see that the secondary debt base has shown a satisfactory and slowly rising upward yield curve.  When the market encounters periodic fluctuations, strictly controlled withdrawal of “fixed income +” products can well meet the needs of traditional wealth management investors. Although the net value of such products also fluctuates, the amplitude is relatively large.Small; when the equity market performs better, “solid income +” products can also show better up-going.This kind of products can provide investors with more comfortable and stable investment experience while providing them with considerable and stable returns.

Hengli Petrochemical (600346) In-depth Research Report: The Rise of 200 Billion Net Profits of Private Refinery Leaders

Hengli Petrochemical (600346) In-depth Research Report: The Rise of 200 Billion Net Profits of Private Refinery Leaders

Ten years of leapfrog development, transformed from a polyester enterprise to a private-sector leader in refining and petrochemicals.

The company started from the town-run chemical fiber weaving factory in 1995, and started the 10-year leap-forward development process from the foundation laying of Hengli Changxing Island base in 2010. In 2016, backdoor large rubber and plastic entered the A-share market.

Starting from the development timeline, the company mainly focused on the polyester business before 2018. In 2018, it merged into 100% equity of Hengli Refining and Chemicals. It gradually began to release the performance of refineries and supporting production lines. After full commissioning in 2019, it officially grew toThe private refining and chemical leader has formed a business structure with two major business lines: refinery and polyester. It has planned three 500-ton PTA production lines, 150-ton ethylene ethylene production lines and 135-ton new polyester production lines.

In terms of equity concentration, the company’s controlling shareholder, Hengli Group, holds 30% of the shares; the actual controllers, Chen Jianhua and Fan Hongwei, together hold 76% of the shares.

  Brent oil prices are anchored at $ 65 / barrel.

On a five-year time scale, the growth rate of crude oil demand fell at 1.

At the level of 5%, the growth rate of supply fell at the level of 2%, and the overall supply-demand relationship was loose.

On the demand side, the global economy peaked in 2018, and the growth rate of crude oil demand fell to less than 1%. On the supply side, OPEC + actively reduced production and bottom oil prices encountered hedging by US oil production. The substantial contraction in supply 武汉夜网论坛 mainly came from Iran ‘s passiveReduced production, supply growth is currently negative, that is, short-term supply and demand of crude oil is tight.

However, as the reserve capacity of the PEC + country reached 4.8 million barrels per day, and the remaining million barrels of US oil grades have room to increase production, the ability of oil prices to create supply is quite strong, and expansion of space is strictly restricted.

当下全球原油需求尚未回暖,油价基本卡在美油不得减产、OPEC+不得退出减产的区间上(50-70 美元/桶)运行,按照B-W 价差,布油区间为55-75 美元/桶,即中等Oil prices until the emergence of new variables such as the rupture of the OPEC + alliance or the recovery in global demand break through the existing balance.

  At the price of $ 65 per barrel of oil, the annual net profit of the refinery is expected to reach 18.5 billion.

Under the oil distribution benchmark of $ 65 / barrel, our conservative estimates show that the full output of the refinery can achieve a net profit of 14.5 billion (including return of income).

If we consider the 4 billion cost savings of supporting plants and terminals, there is still room for upward net profit.

In terms of competitiveness, it has been calculated that the heavy oil input replacement 2000 short-term refinery project is equivalent to the same scale. The light oil refinery of the production line saves 700 million U.S. dollars a year, and the coal-to-hydrogen production is 400 million less than natural gas hydrogen production.The cost-side competitiveness is significantly stronger than its peers.

After the completion of the supporting 150-ton ethylene ethylene project, it is estimated that it will contribute 4 billion tons of net profit each year. If the profit of the refinery + the profit of the ethylene project is added up, regardless of the supporting terminals, storage and transportation facilities and self-provided power, refiningThe comprehensive annual net profit of the plant can be as high as 18.5 billion.

  Control of PX-PTA raw materials, cost-side competition is invincible.

It is estimated that 500 tons of PTA can contribute 20 trillion in annual net profit after full production, and 135-inch polyester new materials can contribute 12 trillion in annual net profit when fully produced, which can increase net profit by 3.2 billion.

In terms of competitiveness, the advantage of the PTA production line is that the cost of assets PX can be 1,775 yuan / ton lower than that of externally mined PX. The division is mainly attributed to refinery profits.

On the polyester production line, 73% of the company’s civilian silk is FDY, and at a high price of 20D?
100D is the mainstream specification. At present, only domestic companies below 10D can produce FDY. The finest products can achieve 7D. The overall feasibility can be 500-1000 yuan / ton higher than similar enterprises. Therefore, the gross profit margin ranks first in the industry.

  Investment suggestion: We expect the company to achieve EPS order of 1 in 2019-2021.

55, 1.

85 and 2.

78 yuan / share, with a price-earnings ratio of 12 times based on the 20% quantile of the valuation of CITIC Petrochemical. The first coverage is given a “strong push” rating with a target price of 22.

2 yuan / share.

  Risk reminder: oil spreads quickly rises into a high range (> 80 USD / barrel).